An Environmentally Forced Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
An environmentally forced tropical cyclone hazard model
A physics-based statistical stochastic system is developed for estimating the long-term hazard of rare, high impact landfall events globally from ensembles of synthetic tropical cyclones. There are three components representing the complete storm lifetime: an index-based genesis model, a beta-advection track model and an autoregressive intensity model. All three components depend upon the local...
متن کاملA Minimal Three-Dimensional Tropical Cyclone Model
A minimal 3D numerical model designed for basic studies of tropical cyclone behavior is described. The model is formulated in s coordinates on an f or b plane and has three vertical levels, one characterizing a shallow boundary layer and the other two representing the upper and lower troposphere, respectively. It has three options for treating cumulus convection on the subgrid scale and a simpl...
متن کاملPredicting Tropical Cyclone Genesis
The long-term goal of this project is to provide probabilistic genesis forecast guidance to operational forecasters and develop a genesis index to provide guidance for operational dynamical model prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Once regions of high TC genesis probability are identified, a movable, multi-nested version of the COAMPS with resolution of roughly 3 km or less in the inn...
متن کاملTropical Cyclone Eye Thermodynamics
In intense tropical cyclones, sea level pressures at the center are 50–100 hPa lower than outside the vortex, but only 10–30 hPa of the total pressure fall occurs inside the eye between the eyewall and the center. Warming by dry subsidence accounts for this fraction of the total hydrostatic pressure fall. Convection in the eyewall causes the warming by doing work on the eye to force the thermal...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1942-2466
DOI: 10.1002/2017ms001186